Infectious Disease, Human Security, and Social Media

The concept of human security is based, in part, on a widening of our understanding of what constitutes a security threat beyond the traditional focus on military threats in the concept of national security.  Human security includes concern for military threats, but it also encompasses threats related to food shortages, pollution, poverty, and disease.  Health insecurity, in fact, is one of the most persistent and problematic of all forms of insecurity if we judge such things in terms of lethality and impact on quality of life.  Consider that the wars of the twentieth century were responsible for roughly 100 million deaths while smallpox (now eradicated) killed somewhere between 300 and 500 million people during the same period.

One of the keys to gaining the upper hand in the war with microbes is understanding--and responding rapidly--to the spread of infectious diseases.  For humans to continue with business as usual when communicable diseases are running rampant among the population is to give a tremendous assist to the bugs.  Especially now, when, for the first time in human history, over half the world's population lives in urban areas, failing to get a flu shot, to cough into a sleeve, to stay home when running a fever, or to avoid crowded spaces can jeopardize the health--and sometimes the lives--of others.  The problem, however, is that sometimes infectious diseases are spread before their human carriers even know they are sick.  By the time the coughing, sneezing, vomiting, or other unpleasantness arrives, the viruses causing the symptoms may have already been spread.  Infectious diseases are often stealthy.

The solution, as public health experts have known for a long time, is to ensure that healthy people take precautions against the spread of disease as soon as those less fortunate begin to manifest symptoms.  The key to my continued health, in other words, is to take note of your illness and to avoid you (like the plague, as it were).  But if I take note of your illness only after you've shaken my hand or sneezed in my general vicinity, it's too late.  I may already have what you have.  The key, therefore, is public monitoring and reporting of the fact that an infectious disease is making its way through the local population.

Public health authorities in every state of the United States and in most of the world's countries collect information regarding the spread of infectious disease.  In fact, laws mandate that hospitals and clinics report on the incidence of various diseases that have been diagnosed and treated.  Massachusetts, in 1874, was the first state in the United States to initiate the systematic reporting of illness by physicians.  Michigan, in 1883, was the first to require such reports.  Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) collects aggregate data on disease and mortality from the states.  The World Health Organization (WHO) performs a similar function on the global level.

Reporting of this type is essential for epidemiologists.  It can help health care providers to know what is happening when people start appearing for treatment with symptoms that could be explained by a variety of different conditions.  It can allow pharmaceutical companies to know when to ramp up production of particular vaccines and where to ship those that they have produced.  But it may not be timely enough to let me know that I shouldn't ride the subway into work tomorrow because a bunch of people in my city starting coughing and sneezing in just the last 24 hours and some of them are likely to tough it out and go to work tomorrow in spite of the fact that they're spewing pestilence.

This is where social media may help.  A new website call Sickweather (with changing mottoes that include "cough into your elbow," "we be illin'," and "don't touch me") is attempting to map the spread of various illnesses in real time by collecting the clues we post on Facebook, Twitter, and other social media regarding our state of health.  So when people Tweet about being up with a sick kid all night or update their Facebook status with something like "my head is so full of mucus it could explode," Sickweather takes that information and (presumably after a "whoa, dude, TMI") includes it in the database of illness reports.  By mapping the location of those who post their health reports (when location can be determined), Sickweather is able to generate a sickweather map.  Sickweather also invites visitors to the site to log in and fill out a quick health report.  (Calling all hypochondriacs!)

There are some, ahem, bugs to be worked out, no doubt, but the concept seems to be full of potential.  John Metcalfe of The Atlantic reports on Sickweather here if you need a bit more information.

There's much to be learned about human behavior, and threats to human security, by mining our online data.  In fact, I suspect one could track (and issue warnings about) outbreaks of karaoke, wine snobbery, and Angry Birds expertise in much the same way that Sickweather is handling illness.

"Red nose at morning, sailors take warning."  Seriously, you should check out Sickweather just for its ever-changing tag lines.

Les biens mal acquis

Even as the United States Department of Justice seeks to prove that Teodoro Nguema Obiang's Malibu mansion, assorted sports cars, Learjet, and Michael Jackson memorabilia are the products of corruption and therefore subject to seizure, the French government is moving in the same direction.  As part of a corruption probe popularly known in France as "BMA" (for biens mal acquis, or ill-gotten goods), French authorities raided TNO's Paris home at 42 Avenue Foch earlier this week.

The Equatoguinean government responded Thursday with this statement:  "The government of Equatorial Guinea expresses its total indignation and protests against the illegitimate persecution by French authorities on an apartment of the state . . . in Paris, in flagrant violation of international conventions."  Of course, "the government of Equatorial Guinea" is TNO's father, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who runs the country as a family-owned criminal enterprise.  The "international conventions" to which the statement refers are those related to diplomatic immunity, and especially the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961.  The Obiang family argues that TNO's Paris residence is protected by diplomatic immunity because TNO was appointed by his father last October to be Equatorial Guinea's deputy permanent representative to UNESCO, which is headquartered in Paris.  The French government is apparently unpersuaded by the argument.

Women, Power, and Peace

In 1998, Francis Fukuyama argued in an article for Foreign Affairs that, as women gain access to power across the world, the world is becoming a more peaceful place.  The "democratic peace," Fukuyama suggested, may in fact be a consequence of the feminization of politics.  He noted that "developed democracies . . . tend to be more feminized than authoritarian states, in terms of expansion of franchise and participation in political decision-making.  It should therefore surprise no one that the historically unprecedented shift in the sexual basis of politics should lead to a change in international relations."

Today, in a column published online by Aljazeera, Harvard professor and former assistant secretary of defense Joseph Nye considers whether a world run by women would be a more peaceful place.  Harvard psychologist Stephen Pinker, he notes, has argued in a recent book (Better Angels of Our Nature) that "over the long sweep of human history, women have been and will be a pacifying force."  Nye, endorsing this view, suggests that the connection between women and peace may be due in part to differences between women and men in leadership style:  "Women's non-hierarchical style and relational skills fit a leadership need in the new world of knowledge-based organisations and groups that men, on average, are less well prepared to meet."

Notwithstanding the potential advantages that women bring to the table as leaders, there remains a large gender gap when it comes to access to power in the political, economic, and social realms.  Women today hold only 5 percent of the world's top corporate positions.  Over the course of the 20th century, just 27 of 1,941 rulers of independent states were female.  Often, when women have been in positions of power, they  have been forced to adopt more masculine leadership styles (and foreign policies).  (Think Margaret Thatcher, currently being portrayed by Meryl Streep in Iron Lady.)

Progress has occurred at a glacial pace, but when we look at certain benchmarks in the not-too-distant past we can find reason for optimism.  In 1900, no country in the world allowed women to run for elective office at the national level.  Jeannette Rankin, the first woman elected to Congress in the United States, was elected in 1916.  (She remains the only woman ever elected to Congress from Montana.)  Today, wherever men can vote, women have won the right to vote as well (with women's suffrage in Saudi Arabia coming in 2015).

The future, in all likelihood, belongs to women.  And that is probably a good thing for all of us.

Picking Electronic Pockets

"Everybody knows that if you are doing business in China, in the 21st century, you don't bring anything with you."  The "anything" to which cybersecurity expert Jacob Olcott refers is anything electronic.  And why?  Because the Chinese are remarkably adept at stealing data from computers, cell phones, or any other devices carried by travelers to China.

The New York Times describes the problem in this rather unsettling article.

A Human Rights Revolution

Amnesty International presents a brief summary of the dramatic events in North Africa and the Middle East since 2011.


(A human rights revolution from Amnesty International on Vimeo).

Human Rights Enforcement: The End of an Era

Baltasar Garzón, the Spanish judge who, in 1998, issued an international warrant for the arrest of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and, in 2008, initiated an investigation of crimes against humanity committed during the Franco regime, has been found guilty of illegally ordering wiretaps of lawyers' conversations with clients in a political corruption case.  While Spanish law permits such wiretaps in terrorism cases, it is vague concerning their permissibility in other cases.  Garzón was convicted by a panel of judges in Spain's Supreme Court, fined, and removed from the bench for eleven years.

There are additional legal problems for Garzón.  A second trial, also on charges of exceeding his legal authority, has just concluded.  Garzón is accused of opening the investigation of the Franco regime's crimes in violation of a 1977 amnesty law.  He told the panel hearing that case that he was motivated by "the helplessness of the victims."  A verdict is expected to take weeks.

Although the verdict already rendered effectively ends Garzón's career as a judge in Spain, the case involving his investigation of Franco-era crimes is drawing even greater attention.  Garzón has argued that his investigation was proper because there can be no amnesty for crimes against humanity.  This position has been supported by a group of UN human rights experts who issued a statement calling it “regrettable that Judge Garzón could be punished for opening an investigation which is in line with Spain’s obligations to investigate human rights violations in accordance with international law principles.”

Right-wing groups in Spain have resented Garzón's international fame and have been angered by his interest in digging up Spain's troubled past.  Garzón, on the other hand, has viewed the investigation of Spanish crimes against humanity as a logical extension of his international investigations.  According to one of Garzón's attorneys, Gonzalo Martinez-Fresneda, "The question that Garzón was always asked is: 'Why are you prosecuting Pinochet, why are you going after the Argentinean dictators, why are you after the Nazis, but you're not investigating the war crimes committed in Spain?"

There remains the possibility that Garzón might be able to end his career as a prosecutor at the International Criminal Court.  He served as a consultant to the ICC after his suspension from the bench in Spain.

Kennedy and the Cubans

The United States' economic embargo against Cuba has now been in place for half a century.  President John F. Kennedy imposed what Cubans call el bloqueo by means of an executive order in February 1962, soon after Pierre Salinger, his press secretary, delivered 1,200 Cuban cigars to the White House.

Salinger tells this and another story related Cuban cigars in this video:

(Thanks to Alex Tangkilisan.)

Child Soldiers: Dealing with Responsible Parties

On October 3, 2008, President George W. Bush signed into law the Child Soldiers Accountability Act, introduced in 2007 by Senator Richard Durbin and passed unanimously in both the House and the Senate in September 2008.  The act, which has extraterritorial reach, makes it a federal crime to recruit or use children under 15 as soldiers.

Yesterday, a federal immigration judge ordered the deportation of George Boley, a former Liberian warlord, under the terms of the Child Soldiers Accountability Act.  It is the first time the Act has been used for this purpose.

Boley was the leader of an organization called the Liberian Peace Council (LPC), one of seven separate organizations waging war in Liberia during an internal struggle that lasted, with only a brief interruption, from 1989 to 2003.  As many as 250,000 people died in the civil war, which was characterized by the use of child soldiers and frequent atrocities against noncombatants.  Liberia's Truth and Reconciliation Commission recommended that Boley and other warlords be prosecuted for atrocities committed during the war, but no charges have ever been filed.  (Former Liberian president Charles Taylor, however, is being tried in the Special Court for Sierra Leone for his role in fomenting that country's civil war.)

According to a story in the Rochester (N.Y.) Democrat and Chronicle, Boley is a longtime resident of Clarkson, New York.  He attended college almost forty years ago at the College of Brockport where he earned a bachelor's and a master's degree before earning a Ph.D. at the University of Akron.  He was a minister in the government of Samuel Doe, but came to the United States in 1990 following Doe's murder.  In 1993, Boley returned to Liberia as the leader of the LPC.

Boley has been in federal custody for the last two years while fighting deportation.

The Right to a Free Public Education

There is a common misconception that international human rights are enforced only when the leader of an abusive regime--Sudan's Bashir or Syria's Assad, for example--is captured and transferred to an international court or when the Security Council musters the necessary votes to impose sanctions or authorize humanitarian intervention to halt human rights abuses.  These things do happen on occasion, but only when state interests (especially among the permanent members of the Security Council) are aligned properly.  The Russian and Chinese veto of a Security Council resolution calling for the ouster of Assad in Syria last week, with what appear to be tragic consequences, offers an example of a political failure to enforce human rights.

The Syrian case is especially tragic because innocent people are being killed by government forces as an authoritarian regimes clings to power.  But the international human rights regime deals with far more than threats to life and liberty.  There are many other human rights that require monitoring, and occasionally enforcement, under circumstances in which neither the Security Council nor a hegemonic state is likely to take much notice.  Sometimes, in fact, it is the hegemonic state that needs a dose of enforcement activity.  How are human rights enforced in these circumstances?

California provides a good example with respect to the right to a free public education.  The right is guaranteed in international human rights law and in California's constitution.  As an example of the former, consider Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states, in part, "Everyone has the right to education. Education shall be free, at least in the elementary and fundamental stages." (The UDHR is widely regarded as an expression of customary international law in spite of the fact that it was adopted in 1948 as a non-binding resolution of the United Nations General Assembly.)  Article 13 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights states that "Primary education shall be compulsory and available free to all."  In California, the right to education is found in Article 9 of the constitution:  "The Legislature shall provide for a system of common schools by which a free school shall be kept up and supported in each district."  (Article 9 actually includes about 2600 words, many having to do with the State Board of Education, public universities and boards of regents, textbooks, teachers, and many other matters more appropriate to a legal code than a fundamental statement of rights.)  The point, of course, is that the right to a free public education, which is a part of the contemporary international human rights regime, is embedded in California law where the right is realized.  (In point of fact, the right was embedded in California law long before the UDHR was drafted.  It would be accurate to say, certainly in this instance, that the UDHR articulates a right guaranteed in some but not all parts of the world in 1948.)

Unfortunately, budget cuts in California have weakened the state's commitment to an educational system that is "free to all," at least in its primary and secondary stages.  To compensate for declining revenues, many school districts have asked students and their families to pay for athletic uniforms, art supplies, and even workbooks for Spanish classes and novels for English classes.

In September 2010, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed a class action suit on behalf of students forced to pay fees for a variety of required educational materials.  One student paid $440 annually for various fees, an amount that presented a financial hardship for the family.

Two weeks ago, Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Carl West denied a motion to dismiss filed by the state.  Meanwhile, Assemblyman Ricardo Lara is pushing legislation that will require school superintendents to monitor all schools under their supervision to ensure that illegal fees are not being imposed in violation of the constitutional--and international human rights--requirement that the state provide a free public education.

This is how international human rights ought to be--and sometimes are--enforced.  A particular right such as the right to a free public education, expressed in general terms in international law, is incorporated into the constitutional or statutory law of individual states in a form appropriate to the local culture.  Robust civil society groups, such as the ACLU in the United States, monitor compliance with the law and, when necessary, go to court to demand compliance, even as legislatures act to strengthen the law.

Slavery at SeaWorld?

Last October, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) filed suit in federal court alleging that five orcas kept by SeaWorld (three in San Diego and two in Orlando) are being held in slavery in violation of the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution.  Jeffrey Kerr, PETA's attorney, has said that this is "the next frontier of civil rights."  Today Judge Jeffrey Miller heard arguments related to SeaWorld's motion to dismiss the suit.

There's certainly a case to be made that orcas should not be held in captivity, but antislavery law is probably not the best foundation for that case.

Globalizing Change.org

Nicholas Kristof's column in today's New York Times looks at Change.org and its power to create, well, change.  After describing the way a fourth-grade class in Massachusetts persuaded Universal Studios to green its advertising for The Lorax, a movie due out in March based on the Dr. Seuss book about protecting the environment, Kristof goes on to describe the dramatic expansion of Change.org.  It turns out that when I joined Change.org last month, it was a one-in-a-million thing--by which I mean that Change.org is adding a million new members per month.

Although still small (compared to Facebook), Change.org now has offices on four continents.  The company plans to have offices in twenty countries and operate in Arabic and Chinese by the end of 2012.  There will no doubt be censorship battles ahead, but the beauty of a petition is that can clearly articulate the will of the people--peacefully.

The "right of the people  . . . to petition the government for a redress of grievances," as the First Amendment puts it, is an important right.  Change.org makes it easy to exercise the right.

The First Grader

Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states, in part, that "everyone has the right to education."  It is a right that is central to the plot of a beautiful film called The First Grader.

Based on the true story of Kimani N'gan'ga Maruge, a Kenyan who, at age 84, insisted on attending primary school so that he could learn to read after Kenya instituted free primary education for all, The First Grader is more than simply a cute "old man goes to school with six-year-olds" film.  In frequent and sometimes very intense flashbacks, we learn that Maruge fought against the British in the Mau Mau Rebellion of the 1950s.  While historians are divided over the significance of the rebellion in terms of its impact on Kenyan independence (which came in 1963), the Mau Mau rebels have been honored in Kenya for their contributions to the cause.

The First Grader also touches on the brutality of the British response to the Mau Mau Rebellion, an issue that continues to attract attention in spite of the fact that the British have been gone from Kenya--the former British East Africa--for almost fifty years.  In April 2011, the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office admitted that it had withheld thousands of documents relating to the treatment of Mau Mau detainees in Kenya in spite of repeated requests for their release.  Shortly thereafter, a British court gave four Kenyans the right to sue the British government for human rights violations.  Historian David Anderson noted in The Guardian last summer, "Of the four elderly Kenyan plaintiffs who brought this case, two were allegedly the victims of castration, one claims to have been savagely beaten and left for dead on a mortuary slab, and another was allegedly the victim of repeated sexual abuse--all acts conducted during British 'interrogation' of suspects against whom no crime had been proved."

Perhaps what makes The First Grader work so well is the contrast it poses between the brutality of Kenya's colonial past and the hope for the future that free universal education offers.  Both came together in the person of Kimani Maruge, who died in 2009 at the age of 89.

(Thanks to Liz Feiner for recommending this film.)

Justice for Comrade Duch

Kaing Guek Eav, also known as Comrade Duch, had his conviction upheld and his sentence increased by the Supreme Court Chamber of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) earlier this week.  The ECCC was established as a mixed Cambodian-international tribunal to try those responsible for the Cambodian genocide of 1975-79.  In less than four years, the Khmer Rouge regime led by Pol Pot killed approximately 1.7 million Cambodians, or roughly a quarter of Cambodia's population.  Duch was head of a prison--S21--in Phnom Penh called Tuol Sleng.  Nearly all of the approximately 15,000 people who passed through Tuol Sleng were killed.

 Tuol Sleng (S21)

Duch was convicted of crimes against humanity and grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions in July 2010 in the first trial conducted in the ECCC.  He appealed the verdict in March 2011, claiming that, as a junior official in the Khmer Rouge, he was merely following orders on pain of death.  His argument was rejected by the court, which increased his sentence from 35 years to life in prison.  Judge Kong Srim called Duch's crimes "among the worst in recorded history."

World War I in Color

Even those who dream in color are likely to imagine World War I in black and white. The vast majority of the images that have come down to us, both photographs and a few movies, are monochromatic. Even All Quiet on the Western Front, the classic film about World War I that was released in 1930 is available only in black and white (having apparently escaped the colorization efforts of Turner Classic Movies).

There is, however, a trove of color photographs from World War I available online.  The photographs were taken by the French army during the last two years of the war using a color film that had been developed by Auguste and Louis Lumiere in 1907.  Here's one showing French troops posing in a trench.

One of the points that comes through in even a very cursory look at the photographs is the extent to which the war was in fact a world war.  There are soldiers pictured from various French colonies including Senegal, Algeria, and Indochina.  Woodrow Wilson's call for national self-determination must have been very unnerving to allies fighting the war with considerable help from their colonies.

Cyberspace: The Anarchical Society?

Who owns the Internet?  A better question, and one more pertinent to understanding some of the major issues in international politics today, is Who governs cyberspace?  Some, including many of the Internet's most obsessive users, argue that no one governs cyberspace, nor should anyone attempt to govern it.  The Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and the PROTECT Intellectual Property Act (PIPA), two bills that were, until last week, moving through Congress at the behest of major economic interests concerned about Internet piracy, were derailed because many netizens rebelled against this particular effort on the part of government to regulate cyberspace.  It was not the first time that the Internet had "organized," in its own disorganized fashion, to fight back against attempts to rein in the anarchy of cyberspace.

Saki Knafo, in a two-part story for the Huffington Post entitled "Anonymous and the War over the Internet" (see Part I and Part II), describes the "Chanology War of 2008" in which the Church of Scientology found itself under "attack" on the Internet and being protested--in a non-virtual way--on the sidewalks of 142 cities around the world for having pressured YouTube into removing a video of Tom Cruise rambling incoherently about Scientology.  Knafo regards this as the point at which the geeks gathering in certain IRC rooms began to realize they had the power to influence events irl (in real life).

The success in organizing anti-Scientology protests worldwide earned public recognition for a movement--if that is the right word--called "Anonymous."  Anonymous has no leaders, no hierarchy, no formal structure of any kind, and no members, in the usual sense of that term.  It does, however, have an ethos, one which is focused on preserving cyberspace as an unregulated sphere of activity--an anarchical society, if I may use the term Hedley Bull applied to the realm of international relations.  Consequently, Anonymous acts (and that generally means hacks) in defense of Julian Assange and WikiLeaks or Kim Dotcom and MegaUploads or others thought to be victims of efforts to curb Internet freedom.

It is not immediately clear how we ought to conceptualize cyberspace in terms of its relationship to government.  The U.S. Department of Defense (and other military organizations around the world) view it as the "fifth domain" of conflict (after land, sea, air, and outer space).  It is a realm of espionage and warfare--that is, another space in which U.S. national security interests must be defended.  The U.S. Department of Justice and the Department of Commerce see cyberspace as a medium of economic activity, but also a criminal wasteland.  It is a domain in which terrorists plot, digital pirates steal intellectual property, and hackers routinely defraud the Internet's most gullible users (your grandmother, perhaps) and occasionally wreak havoc on its most sophisticated users (your bank or credit card company).  The U.S. Department of State regards cyberspace as a tool for the spread of liberal values across the world.  What must be defended  in this conception are free access to uncensored information and free expression of political views.  Other parts of the U.S. Government view cyberspace as a venue for the dissemination of information, a tool for advanced communications, a means of spreading educational opportunity, or a forum for advocacy.  Cyberspace is all of these things and much more.

Norms for the governance of cyberspace are emerging, but not easily.  There are clashes of interests being played out between states (e.g., China and the U.S.) because states see themselves as the logical sources of regulation where regulation (perhaps in the form of arms control or copyright protection) is needed.  But here, as in so many other aspects of the emerging post-Westphalian system, states are not the only actors with interests and the ability to advance them forcefully.  As Anonymous has demonstrated on numerous occasions, there are cybercitizens who in a very real sense live in cyberspace and see it as territory to be defended against the encroachments of governments, corporations, international organizations, or interest groups.  And this fact adds a layer of complexity to efforts to develop forms of governance for this new anarchical society.

An African Criminal Court?

The mention of an "African Criminal Court" is usually a sardonic reference to the fact that all seven of the International Criminal Court investigations currently open involve African states.  Yesterday, at the 18th African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, outgoing chairperson Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo actually proposed the creation of an African Criminal Court.  Obiang's stated rationale is that the International Criminal Court has discriminated against African leaders.  It is an objection that is consistent with other positions Obiang has taken to try to insulate African dictators, himself included, from external scrutiny.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, addressing the summit on Sunday, defended the record of the ICC in Africa by noting that many of the investigations have been supported by Africans themselves.  He also noted that the newly elected chief prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda of Ghana, is an African.  Speaking to a Voice of America reporter, Ban argued that the ICC has handled its responsibilities well, using the situations in Cote d'Ivoire and Libya as examples.

In his speech to the AU, Ban urged the assembled leaders to "adopt a preventive approach to human rights."  The Arab Spring, he said, demonstrated that "police power is no match for people power seeking dignity and justice."  Ban also urged African leaders to "live up to the ideals of the Universal Declaration" by ending discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation.

The African Union Summit took place in a new headquarters building constructed at a cost of $200 million by the government of China.  The building, one of many examples of Chinese largesse in Africa, exemplifies the ongoing battle for hearts and minds--and resources--across the continent.  While the West views Africa (along with the Middle East) as one of the last bastions of political repression--a bastion breached by the Arab Spring--China appears to view the dictators of Africa as allies in the defense of sovereignty against the broad incursions made by the ideals of human rights and international justice.

Drones over Syria?

The United Nations Security Council is set to consider a resolution on Syria tomorrow.  Secretary of State Clinton, along with the foreign ministers of France and the United Kingdom, will be present for the debate to underscore Western support for removing Bashar al-Assad from power.  Russia has indicated that it will not support the resolution being put forth by Arab states calling for Assad's removal, nor will it support harsher economic sanctions.

Amid the diplomatic backdrop in New York and a much more violent backdrop on the ground in Syria, the two co-founders of the Genocide Intervention Network are suggesting that drones be deployed over Syria to monitor human rights abuses against opponents of the regime.  Although the Syrian Air Force may be no match for Israel's, it would have little difficulty targeting drones operating in Syrian airspace.  NGOs cannot afford to replace drones that are shot down; states would generally perceive the use of drones to be military intervention, a policy option that thus far is not being seriously considered.

Even though the use of drones in Syria is unlikely, the pilotless planes, commonly called unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), are fast becoming the preferred solution to almost every conceivable problem.  The Department of Homeland Security uses drones in the United States, most prominently for patrolling the long U.S.-Mexico border.  Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) acquired its ninth Predator B UAV in December for border patrol duties.  Although the U.S military has exited Iraq, the State Department is operating drones to help protect the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and consulates in other parts of the country.  In fact, Iraqis are said to be angry about the use of American drones there.

Earlier this month the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a privacy and digital rights watchdog group, filed suit against the federal Department of Transportation, which oversees the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), asking for information regarding the use of drones in domestic surveillance.  The FAA, according to the plaintiffs, has failed to respond to Freedom of Information Act requests seeking the identities of those organizations that have been certified to operate drones in U.S. airspace.

Ai Weiwei: Art and Human Rights

Ai Weiwei, a Chinese artist and dissident, has been barred from leaving China since his arrest last year for "economic crimes."  He was accused of tax evasion (to the tune of $2.4 million) and incarcerated in a case that outside observers view as state harassment in retaliation for criticism of the Chinese government.  Ai spent two and a half months in jail on the charge, which remains unresolved.

Evan Osnos, a staff writer for The New Yorker, reports on a meeting with Ai at the artist's home in Beijing.  The home is under the constant gaze of security cameras and is visited by the police regularly.  Once a week,  Ai is taken to the police station--for education.

In 2010-2011, Ai's installation of porcelain sunflower seeds was exhibited at the Tate Modern in London.  (The artist discusses the creation of the exhibit, which includes millions of hand-crafted porcelain sunflower seeds, in a brief documentary on the exhibition website.)  In China, the sunflower seeds have become a symbol of freedom.  People have written to Ai asking for some of the porcelain seeds, and he has responded by giving them away.  In return, many people have sent money to Ai to help him challenge the tax evasion charge.  Osnos reports that people discuss the seeds in China's heavily censored online forums in a way that makes them a proxy for the artist.  Ai states:  “They talk about seeds and it moved like a wave. They couldn’t talk about me and they couldn’t talk about the government, but when they talked about seeds, nobody could do anything about it, because they aren’t talking about anything--just sunflower seeds!”

Ai's story is told in a documentary by Alison Klayman, Ai Weiwei:  Never Sorry, that has been featured at this year's Sundance Film Festival.  Ms. Klayman was interviewed about the documentary on The Colbert Report last May.

Art has the potential to prompt reflection, to raise questions, and to generate conversation--even about politics and structures of repression.  As Ai puts it in the Tate Modern's documentary, "I always think art is a tool to set up new questions."  For this reason, among others, the cultural rights that some Americans consider even less worthy of defense than economic rights, are important.  They are a part of what it means to have freedom of conscience and freedom of expression.  The suppression of art (and artists) stifles  society as surely as the suppression of political speech.

International Holocaust Remembrance Day

Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day.  Its observance falls on the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz by the Soviet army in the waning days of World War II.

Sixty-seven years--two-thirds of a century--have now passed since the Red Army, advancing across Poland, came upon the most infamous of the Nazi concentration camps, a place where between 1.1 million and 1.6 million people were killed.  The few who survived are rapidly disappearing.  In fact, Kazimierz Smolen, an Auschwitz survivor who was director of the museum at Auschwitz-Birkenau from 1955 to 1990, died today at the age of 91.

Henry Appel, another survivor, said, "There is only one thing worse than Auschwitz itself and that is if the world forgets there was such a place."

An Abysmal Anniversary

It was ten years ago today that the first prisoners in the so-called "War on Terror" arrived at Guantanamo Bay.  Today, there are 171 detainees there, at least 12 of whom arrived with the first group.

Guantanamo remains a legal black hole in most respects, even though some legal challenges have wound up in the U.S. Supreme Court.  This brief film by Amnesty International makes the very important point that the U.S. Government has consistently avoided all discussion of the applicability of international human rights where Guantanamo is concerned.  This, of course, contributes to Guantanamo's status as a place the law can't reach.

Lakhdar Boumediene, who was imprisoned at Guantanamo from January 20, 2002 to May 15, 2009 without being charged with the crime, told his story in the New York Times on Sunday.  It is well worth reading.

Abolition

This may well be the year that another 12 percent of the United States--California, to be specific--moves to abolish the death penalty.  An organization called SAFE (Savings, Accountability, Full Enforcement) California is working to put repeal of the state's capital punishment law on the November ballot.  Should the initiative succeed, California would join sixteen other states that have already abolished the death penalty.

The principal argument that SAFE California makes in favor of abolition is that the death penalty is costly and ineffective.  There is data to support the claim.  According to the Death Penalty Information Center, California had 721 inmates on death row on January 1, 2011.  But, since 1976, only thirteen people have been executed in the state.  (There have been no executions in California since 2006 when a federal court struck down the existing method of lethal injection.)  Some may argue that this simply means the state needs to streamline its use of the death penalty rather than abolishing it, but such an argument is, fundamentally, an argument that California ought to be more like Saudi Arabia or the People's Republic of China in circumventing such legal niceties as the rights of the accused and prohibitions against cruel and unusual punishments.  Furthermore, it is an argument that runs contrary to the fact that, since 1973, 139 people on death rows across the United States have been exonerated.

As Adam Cohen notes in a Time magazine essay, what is happening in California and elsewhere in the United States is abolition prompted by grassroots pressure in the states.  It is not what many death penalty opponents have been hoping for since the U.S. Supreme Court's reinstatement of capital punishment in 1976, that is, outlawry (or at least suspension) in one fell swoop by Supreme Court fiat.  That is what had happened, temporarily, in Furman v. Georgia in 1972.  There are, Cohen notes, certain advantages to death penalty abolition state by state.  "What we are seeing," Cohen writes, "is not a small group of judges setting policy.  It is a large number of Americans gradually losing their enthusiasm for putting people to death."

Viewed from the standpoint of international relations, abolition of the death penalty is one of a number of issues on which the Untied States lags behind international human rights standards.  The Second Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights is premised on the belief "that abolition of the death penalty contributes to enhancement of human dignity and progressive development of human rights" and thus mandates that "no one within the jurisdiction of a State Party to the present Protocol shall be executed."  The Protocol is, of course, optional, but it has been accepted by 73 states, including most of the democracies of Western Europe, Canada, and Mexico.  Those the United States would include among its closest allies have abolished the death penalty.  Those often condemned by the United States for their lack of respect for human rights--the People's Republic of China, North Korea, Iran, and Syria, for example--have not.

It's time to end the death penalty all over the United States, but if abolition has to be accomplished one state at a time, so be it.  California should be next.

Going Latin American

Latin America has long had a reputation for inequality.  It has been a place where, in the popular imagination (and all too often in reality), large landowners have lorded it over the far more numerous peasants or government ministers, grown rich from corruption, have ruled with disdain over the masses.  Inequality has fueled revolutions from time to time--in Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and El Salvador (among others)--but has more often resulted in authoritarian regimes committed to defending the status quo against "communism," a catchall term that was commonly applied to any movement that was critical of the prevailing inequality.

Today, Jorge G. Castañeda, former foreign minister of Mexico and current professor at NYU, suggests in an essay in the New York Times that the United States might have something to learn from Latin America's experience with inequality.  He writes:

The United States--that epitome of the middle-class society, of the egalitarian dream that pulled millions of immigrants away from Latin America--has begun to go Latin American. It is in a process of structural middle-class shrinkage and inequality expansion that has perhaps never occurred anywhere else.

The frightening thing is that Latin America's historical experience indicates that it is very difficult to rebuild a middle class once inequality has reached a certain point.  Worse yet, the level of inequality toward which the United States is rapidly moving is simply incompatible with the kind of democratic governance that many Americans believe to be safe from all challenges here in the United States (as if money were not already compromising democracy).

For almost two centuries, the United States sought to strengthen democracy by promoting equality.  Slavery was abolished, educational opportunities were expanded, women were enfranchised, Jim Crow laws were dismantled, and a modest safety net was created.  Now, however, only those in the Occupy movement seem to understand why inequality might constitute a political problem.  The rest of the country needs to get a clue, unless Latin America circa 1980 is what we hope to become.

Presidents in Prison

Former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega is being flown from Paris to Panama today, leaving a French prison for a twenty-year prison sentence back home.  For the last twenty-two years, since his capture by the U.S. military forces that invaded Panama in what was called Operation Just Cause, Noriega has been imprisoned--first in the United States where he was convicted on charges of drug trafficking, money laundering, and racketeering, then in France where he was convicted for money laundering.  In Panama, Noriega has been convicted on various human rights charges stemming from murders of political opponents committed during the six years he ruled Panama.

Noriega is not the only former leader in prison.  Former Liberian president Charles Taylor has been incarcerated at The Hague since 2006 when he was surrendered to the Special Court for Sierra Leone by the Liberian government headed by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the first democratically elected female leader in Africa.  (Sirleaf was one of three women awarded the Nobel Peace Prize yesterday in Stockholm.)  Taylor is awaiting the Court's verdict in his trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by forces under his control in Sierra Leone's civil war.

Former Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo was turned over to the International Criminal Court by the new government of Ivory Coast two weeks ago.  He is now awaiting trial in The Hague.

Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president ousted by protesters earlier this year, is on trial on a variety of charges including corruption and ordering the killing of protesters.  Due to health problems, including stomach cancer, the 83-year-old Mubarak has been detained in a military hospital in Cairo.  His trial, currently on hold, is scheduled to resume on December 28.

Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, the former president of Tunisia who was ousted in the first wave of the Arab Spring protests, has thus far avoided prison.  However, he has been convicted in absentia of corruption and drug possession.  He and his wife escaped during Tunisia's revolution to Saudi Arabia where they remain in spite of a Tunisian extradition request.

On Wednesday of last week, former Israeli president Moshe Katsav entered prison to begin serving a seven-year sentence for rape.  (The presidency in Israel, it should be noted, is a largely ceremonial office.)  Although Katsav maintains his innocence, his conviction was affirmed by a three-judge panel of Israel's Supreme Court.

Current president of Sudan Omar al-Bashir is currently under indictment by the International Criminal Court. for crimes related to the Darfur genocide.  He, however, remains in office.

Of course, the imprisonment of former leaders is not always a good thing.  In October, former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison on a charge of abuse of office.  Ms. Tymoshenko denounced the verdict, which observers outside Ukraine have widely criticized as having been politically motivated.

Human Rights Day

Sixty-three years ago today, the UN General Assembly adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Since then, the concept of human rights has come to permeate every aspect of international relations, including the internal behavior of most states and the business practices of many multinational corporations.  International human rights law has grown slowly but steadily and is now being enforced not only in the courts of many states but in international or mixed courts from The Hague to Arusha, Tanzania and Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Corrupt and brutal dictators have been overthrown--and in some cases put on trial--in the name of human rights.

While many wrongs in the world remain to be righted, the concept of human rights gives us more hope for improving the human condition than we have ever had reason to feel before.  There are many rights-abusing regimes still to be eliminated, but they can no longer count on the support of international law or, by and large, other governments.  And when the United States departs from the standards established in international human rights law--when it departs, that is, from its own highest ideals--there are others beyond our borders who can, and will, offer correction.  That, too, is a good thing

New Lows for Africa's Longest-Ruling Dictator

President Obiang of Equatorial Guinea continues to act as if the fact that his country's people are among the poorest in Africa is of absolutely no concern to him. Colum Lynch reports that Obiang has approved a contract with a South Korean firm to build a $77 million "presidential guesthouse."

While the regime touts the benefits to Equatoguineans of its "zinc roofs campaign," which is replacing roofs made of palm fronds with corrugated tin roofs, President Obiang is building a guesthouse that will be an architectural showpiece.  Its construction cost alone makes it more expensive than all but three homes listed in the United States, according to a story on Forbes.com last August.

Gbagbo at the ICC

Laurent Gbagbo, former president of Cote d'Ivoire, appeared before the International Criminal Court today.  Although former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic was tried by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and former Liberian president Charles Taylor was tried by the Special Court for Sierra Leone (both in The Hague), Gbagbo is the first former president to face trial at the ICC.

Gbagbo became president of the former French colony in 2000.  He was defeated by Alassane Outtara in the 2010 presidential election, but challenged the results and refused to cede power.  Violence ensued and supporters of both Gbagbo and Ouattara are alleged to have committed serious human rights violations in the struggle for power that followed the election.  Ultimately, Ouattara's supporters, with help from French and UN military forces, succeeded in ousting Gbagbo from power.  Gbagbo was placed under house arrest until his rendition to the ICC by the Ouattara government.

The ICC investigation into post-election violence in Cote d'Ivoire was initiated by President Ouattara in December 2010.  Gbagbo has been indicted on four counts of crimes against humanity, most related to incitement of his supporters to violence.

(The website of the Boston Globe, boston.com, has a great photo essay here on the election and part of its aftermath.)

WWII UXO

Not every bomb dropped or shell fired in a war explodes.  Those that don't are called UXO, or unexploded ordnance.  UXO can kill long after the war comes to an end.

Nearly half the population of Koblenz, Germany has been evacuated following the discovery of a 3,000-pound bomb dropped by the Royal Air Force into the Rhine during World War II.  The evacuees include the residents of seven nursing homes, two hospitals, and a prison.  German authorities will attempt to defuse the bomb tomorrow after draining the water from an area of the river surrounding the bomb.

In June 2010, three German explosives technicians were killed in Gottingen when the World War II bomb they were trying to defuse exploded.

UPDATE:  The bomb in Koblenz has been successfully defused, along with a smaller one found in the same place.  German authorities have also defused a small bomb in Nuremberg after evacuating 200 people there.

Moreno-Ocampo's Successor

Deputy prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will soon succeed Luis Moreno-Ocampo as chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.  Ms. Bensouda, 50, is from Gambia and has served the ICC since 2004.  Prior to that, she served as a prosecutor on the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.

Ms. Bensouda must be elected by the Assembly of States Parties to the ICC at its meeting on December 12, but diplomats have indicated that she will be the only candidate for election to the post of chief prosecutor.

At present, all of the cases before the ICC involve conflicts in Africa.

Obiang Fights Back

Reuters reports that lawyers for Teodorin Obiang are fighting the Justice Department's recent complaint for forfeiture in rem.  This will likely result in prolonged legal proceedings (and an attendant delay in the seizure of Obiang's $30 million Malibu home) as well as some interesting disclosures.  If the Justice Department is pressed to defend its allegations that Obiang's mansion, Learjet, Ferrari, and Michael Jackson memorabilia collection were purchased with the proceeds of corruption, it will likely bring to light information about how the Nguema clan operates that has not previously been made public.

Bring it on!

War School

This short film has been out a while, but I just learned about it recently.  Warning:  It's pretty intense.  (It's also pretty effective.)

Canine PTSD

Today's New York Times has an interesting story about canine post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Five percent of the roughly 650 dogs deployed to combat areas by the U.S. military are thought to be affected by canine PTSD.

A year ago, a story about Gina, a four-year-old German shepherd with canine PTSD, was posted on a U.S. Air Force website. According to the story, Gina's behavior changed dramatically after she came close to an IED explosion while deployed in Southwest Asia. Back at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, Gina was being retrained with no plans for redeployment to a combat zone for at least two years.

In the aftermath of the raid that killed Osama bin Ladin, there was widespread speculation regarding the dog that accompanied Seal Team 6 into Abbottabad. While the dog's breed and precise function is still not known, experts speculate that the dog was present in order to sniff out explosives or persons hiding in the compound. The New York Times reported that dogs used by Special Forces may be decked out in high-tech gear:

Last year, the Seals bought four waterproof tactical vests for their dogs that featured infrared and night-vision cameras so that handlers--holding a three-inch monitor from as far as 1,000 yards away--could immediately see what the dogs were seeing. The vests, which come in coyote tan and camouflage, let handlers communicate with the dogs with a speaker, and the four together cost more than $86,000. Navy Seal teams have trained to parachute from great heights and deploy out of helicopters with dogs.

Military working dogs (MWDs), however, are not fitted with titanium teeth.

In July 2010, the Department of Homeland Security announced that it would "recruit" 600 dogs a year for five years for use in sniffing out bombs, drugs, cash, and people, primarily at border crossings. The bid solicitation stated that DHS was looking for dogs that are "alert, active, outgoing, confident" and "extremely tolerant of people."

Equatorial Guinea on the Big Screen?

Various sources are reporting that Ridley Scott is planning a film based on Simon Mann's 2004 effort to overthrow the government of Equatorial Guinea, a plot that Adam Roberts described in a book called The Wonga Coup.  Gerard Butler will play Mann in the film.

Much remains unclear about the coup attempt that ended with Mann's arrest--without a fight that Scott would be able to embellish with spectacular pyrotechnics--in Zimbabwe.  The drama for those who know about the episode (all four of us?) will lie in seeing (1) how far Scott takes dramatic license to turn a failed coup attempt into something worthy of his directing talents and (2) who Scott (and his screenwriter, Robert Edwards) decide to blame for it.  Was it simply a big money-making proposition--with Margaret Thatcher's son, Mark Thatcher, as the primary investor?  Were American and British intelligence services involved?  The word is that Simon Mann's forthcoming book, Cry Havoc, will not provide the answers to these questions.

Is America Over?

This is the question that dominates the cover of the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs.

Foreign Affairs is an Establishment publication.  It is, in fact, the flagship publication of the Council on Foreign Relations, an Establishment establishment.  It doesn't engage in demagoguery.  And, in the November/December issue, it doesn't offer much reassurance in response to the big question on the cover.

The key article related to the big question is George Packer's essay entitled "The Broken Contract:  Inequality and American Decline."  It is not, strictly speaking, about foreign policy, although the implications of its thesis for foreign policy are very clear.  That it appears in Foreign Affairs should be reason enough to take notice of the argument.

Packer argues that the the unwritten social contract that for decades ensured Americans would work together in common cause to solve the great collective problems of society has been broken by the rise of "organized money" in the nation's political system.  This, in part, was an unintended consequence of reforms implemented in the 1970s that were designed to bring greater transparency and equality into the system.  But the rise of political action committees, independent expenditures in political campaigns, a form of lobbying that is tantamount to legalized bribery, and more is only part of the story.  Ultimately, Packer states, "inequality is the ill that underlies all the others."

For those who doubt that inequality is a problem in the United States, Packer cites these indicators:

Between 1979 and 2006, middle-class Americans saw their annual incomes after taxes increase by 21 percent (adjusted for inflation). The poorest Americans saw their incomes rise by only 11 percent. The top one percent, meanwhile, saw their incomes increase by 256 percent. This almost tripled their share of the national income, up to 23 percent,the highest level since 1928.

The entire article deserves to be read and discussed widely.  Here, however, we skip to Packer's conclusion and another big question:  What difference does inequality make?  Packer answers eloquently:

Inequality divides us from one another in schools, in neighborhoods, at work, on airplanes, in hospitals, in what we eat, in the condition of our bodies, in what we think, in our children’s futures, in how we die. Inequality makes it harder to imagine the lives of others—which is one reason why the fate of over 14 million more or less permanently unemployed Americans leaves so little impression in the country’s political and media capitals. Inequality corrodes trust among fellow citizens, making it seem as if the game is rigged. Inequality provokes a generalized anger that finds targets where it can—immigrants, foreign countries, American elites, government in all forms—and it rewards demagogues while discrediting reformers. Inequality saps the will to conceive of ambitious solutions to large collective problems, because those problems no longer seem very collective. Inequality undermines democracy.

Equatorial Guinea's Constitutional Referendum

The government of Equatorial Guinea is claiming that 99 percent of the electorate approved a package of constitutional reforms in a national referendum yesterday.  Opposition groups claim the vote was a sham.

The referendum will establish a two-term presidential limit, create the office of vice president, and remove the constitutional limit barring a president from serving beyond 75 years of age.  The current president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, has been in office since overthrowing Francisco Macias in a coup in 1979.  He is 69 and in the second year of a presidential term set to expire in 2016.  It is unclear whether the new term limit would prevent him from serving one or more terms beyond the current seven-year term.

Those who observe political developments in Equatorial Guinea generally believe the constitutional changes effected by this referendum are designed to make it easier for Obiang to ensure that his oldest son, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, will be able to succeed him as president.  The younger Obiang is expected to be named vice president soon.  This expectation has been bolstered by the fact that he has, in recent months, been named vice president of the ruling party, chair of the constitutional reform campaign, and ambassador to UNESCO.  He has also been hit with legal proceedings in France and the United States aimed at seizing assets that are the products of bribery and extortion, but such embarrassments seem to have little effect on politics inside Equatorial Guinea.

Oil and Water

A piece by Mark Landler in today's New York Times titled "A New Era of Gunboat Diplomacy" is well worth reading for those interested in the connection between oil and national security.  One-third of global oil production now occurs offshore and some of the hotspots for oil and natural gas exploration are in maritime regions where overlapping claims to jurisdiction have the potential to create problems:  the South China Sea, the Arctic Ocean, and the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Offshore production presents a number of serious environmental risks--one only has to recall the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico--but there can be security benefits from confining production to offshore platforms.  Oil production in the Gulf of Guinea, for example, avoids the serious political and military threats that plague production onshore in Nigeria and Angola.  If, however, the regime governing maritime jurisdiction established by the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention is contested or there are serious sovereignty disputes involving islands (as in the South China Sea), then offshore oil exploration and production may generate new security concerns.  If there are resource wars in our future, they may begin at sea.

Viktor Bout: Friend or Foe?

On Wednesday, November 2, the notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout was convicted in a federal court in Manhattan on four counts of conspiracy in connection with the sale of weapons to Colombian rebels.  Bout, who once advised the Soviet military in Africa, bought weapons and a fleet of cargo planes from the former Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War and began trafficking arms to both governments and rebel forces in various conflicts around the world.  A British government report published in 2000 referred to him as "the Merchant of Death."  The movie Lord of War, which starred Nicholas Cage, was based on his exploits.

Here is the description of Bout in the second edition of Seeking Security in an Insecure World:

Bout is alleged to have sold over seven hundred surface-to-air missiles, military helicopters and airplanes, and thousands of guns to FARC, the Colombian paramilitary organization.  He has also sold weapons in Afghanistan and in various war zones in Africa.  At a Bangkok hotel in March 2008, Bout offered undercover agents of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency posing as FARC representatives a wide range of weapons, including land mines, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and C-4 explosives.  He was arrested at the conclusion of the meeting, which was taped, and, in August 2010, a Thai court ordered his extradition to stand trial in the United States.

In an op-ed published in the New York Times on Friday, Andrew Feinstein, author of The Shadow World:  Inside the Global Arms Trade (reviewed here by John Tirman), writes that in 2003 and 2004, Irbis Air--a company owned by Bout--flew supplies into Baghdad under contract to the U.S. Defense Department and KBR, a private contractor that was itself working for the U.S. Government.  Feinstein points out that "governments protect corrupt and dangerous arms dealers as long as they need them and then throw them behind bars when they are no longer useful."

Putting Kleptocrats on Notice

[The following was written for Opinio Juris and posted there yesterday.  I am cross-posting here with a few updated references and links.]

The other shoe has dropped in the U.S. Government’s corruption case against Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue. On October 25, a civil forfeiture complaint was unsealed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California as a second complaint was filed in the District of Columbia. The complaints, tantalizingly foreshadowed by the lis pendens filing on October 13 that Roger noted in a previous post, seek the forfeiture of over $70 million in assets owned by the profligate son and heir-apparent of Equatorial Guinea’s dictator, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo.

These actions are part of the Justice Department’s Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative that was announced by Attorney General Holder at the African Union Summit on July 25, 2010. (In a move that angered human rights groups, the African Union selected President Obiang Nguema to chair the organization six months later.) Assistant Attorney General Lanny Breuer directs the group within the Criminal Division that is implementing the Initiative. The first complaint filed by Breuer’s group sought the seizure of over $1 million in assets (including a $600,000 home in Maryland) owned by Diepreye Solomon Peter Alamieyeseigha, former governor of the oil-rich Bayelsa State in Nigeria. DSP, as he was known to investigators, was impeached in 2005, but by that time he had laundered millions of dollars gained through oil-related corruption in the U.S., the United Kingdom, and elsewhere.

The assets to be seized in the Equatoguinean case are also the products of oil-related corruption. Like Nigeria, its neighbor to the north, Equatorial Guinea sits over the large oil reserves of the Gulf of Guinea. Unlike Nigeria and the other oil giant of sub-Saharan Africa, Angola, Equatorial Guinea is an oasis of political stability, although its stability is a product of severe repression. Since 2004, Equatoguinean oil production has averaged over 300,000 barrels per day, the vast majority of it produced by ExxonMobil, Hess, and Marathon, three U.S. corporations. As a result of extortion, misappropriation of public funds, and other forms of corruption, President Obiang Nguema, his family, and others in the inner circle have become fabulously wealthy while the nation at large remains among the most impoverished in Africa.

Teodorín, as the president’s oldest son is known, has been especially reckless in flaunting his portion of Equatorial Guinea’s oil wealth. Roger listed some of the property against which the U.S. Government has filed complaints for forfeiture in rem, but there are other countries around the world that could put together similar lists of homes, cars, and collectables. In fact, last month France seized eleven luxury cars belonging to Teodorín from the family’s residence on Avenue Foch near the Arc de Triomphe, while Spain is reportedly preparing to move against properties in Madrid and Las Palmas.

The beauty of what now appears to be a coordinated action by prosecutors in the U.S., France, and Spain against one of the most corrupt governments in the world is that it severely limits the possibilities for retaliation using the oil weapon. Because Equatorial Guinea’s oil is produced offshore in deepwater wells, few companies, whether state-owned or private, can provide the necessary production technology. In fact, China’s principal oil production company, CNOOC, completed its first deepwater production rig—destined for use in the South China Sea—in May of this year. Although China is the destination of 12 percent of Equatorial Guinea’s oil exports, it will not be in a position to displace Western oil companies for years to come.

The seizure of Teodorín’s assets in the United States is unlikely to speed the departure of the man who, since Gaddafi’s demise, is the longest-surviving dictator in Africa, nor is it likely to spur dramatic progress toward democracy and respect for human rights in Equatorial Guinea. It will be, however, a small victory for anti-corruption advocates and, perhaps more importantly, a strong signal to the world’s remaining kleptocrats.

A "Kill Team" Conviction

Staff sergeant Calvin Gibbs was convicted on three counts of murder and sentenced to life in prison for a series of sport killings in Afghanistan between January and May 2010.  Gibbs was one of five members of the Fifth Stryker Brigade, Second Infantry Division, charged with murder for deliberately killing civilians.  Three have entered guilty pleas.  In all, twelve members of the brigade have been charged with crimes related to activities of the so-called "kill team."  Ten of those have pleaded guilty or been convicted to date.

According to an Army investigation into the killings that was leaked to the Washington Post last year, a member of Gibbs' unit claimed that he hoped to make a necklace from fingers that he cut from the hands of those he killed.  Gibbs also had a tattoo on his calf that he used to keep track of his kills.  Red skulls represented kills in Iraq while blue skulls indicated kills in Afghanistan.

There are many atrocities in war that go unpunished.  Indeed, war itself may be the greatest atrocity.  But what happened today in a U.S. court martial is a reminder that not everything is permissible in war.  And sometimes activities that cross the line--even in war--are actually punished.

Steps Toward Statehood

The General Conference of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has voted to admit Palestine as a member.  The vote was 107 in favor and 14 against, with 52 abstentions.  Because Palestine is not a member of the United Nations, the vote to admit it to UNESCO required a two-thirds majority of those voting. (Abstentions are not counted as votes.)

The push for membership by Palestine is part of move to gain international recognition of Palestinian statehood, a move opposed by Israel and the United States.  Because only states may be members of UNESCO (as with other UN bodies), admission indicates the support of a majority of the world's states for Palestinian statehood.  Palestine is expected to press for membership to the UN itself in the coming weeks, but because both the UN Security Council and the General Assembly must approve such an application and the U.S. Government has indicated that it will veto the Palestinian application in the Security Council, there is no possibility for clearing this particular hurdle.

U.S. law currently mandates the elimination of funding for any UN body that admits Palestine as a member.  In the case of UNESCO, this will mean the loss of one-fifth of the operating budget.

Autonomous Warbots

Yesterday the Washington Post published a story on the next generation of warbots:  robots (including drones) capable of autonomous decision-making and action.  The story begins by recounting a recent test at Fort Benning, Georgia in which two drones were able to locate a multicolored tarp on the ground after the pattern had been loaded into their onboard computers.  Acquisition of the target occurred with no human direction after takeoff.  Of course, target acquisition based on pattern recognition can easily be linked to the use of weapons.  But, for the time being, the U.S. military is determined not to take humans out of the loop where lethal operations are concerned.

South Korea deployed two sentry robots last year along its heavily militarized border with North Korea.  (For a video demonstration of the sentry robots' capabilities, go here.)   Thus far, an order from a human operator is required before the SGR-A1 robots can fire on suspected intruders.  It is clear, however, that the robots (built by Samsung Techwin) could be configured to respond autonomously to an intrusion.

Langner Explains Stuxnet

Ralph Langner, the German security consultant who deciphered the Stuxnet worm that was designed to cripple the Iranian nuclear program, explains in this video both how the mystery was unraveled and how Stuxnet was designed to work.

Aung San Suu Kyi Released

Burmese political dissident and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has been released from house arrest. Daw Suu, as she is called by her supporters in Burma, has been confined since May 30, 2003.

Rousseau on Theory and Reality

"I open the books on Right and on ethics; I listen to the professors and jurists; and, my mind full of their seductive doctrines, I admire the peace and justice established by the civil order; I bless the wisdom of our political institutions and, knowing myself a citizen, cease to lament I am a man. Thoroughly instructed as to my duties and my happiness, I close the book, step out of the lecture room, and look around me. I see wretched nations groaning beneath a yoke of iron. I see mankind ground down by a handful of oppressors. I see a famished mob, worn down by sufferings and famine, while the rich drink the blood and tears of their victims at their ease. I see on every side the strong armed with the terrible powers of the Law against the weak. . . . And that is the fruit of your peaceful institutions! Indignation and pity rise from the very bottom of my heart. Yes, heartless philosopher! come and read us your book on a field of battle!"

-- Jean-Jacques Rousseau, from "Fragments of an Essay on the State of War"

Resuscitating the Blog

It's hard for me to believe that the first posts here on Swords Into Plowshares appeared over six years ago. It's easier to believe (but more difficult to accept) that my blogging has been very sporadic over the last half of those six years. The start of a new year—a new academic year, that is—seems to be a good time to revive the blog. To that end, I want to reintroduce Swords Into Plowshares with a few comments about what I do here and why.

First, I have written here, and will again write, about international politics. More specifically, I have written mostly about issues in international politics that get me excited—and sometimes agitated. As the blog's subtitle suggests, these issues generally fall under the heading of "the quest for peace and justice." That doesn't narrow the field a lot, but it does tell you that I tend to post most often on issues related to human rights, international law, the sources of conflict (especially those that are, in some sense, new), and arms control. Posts often relate to specific courses I teach (especially International Organization and Law and Ethics and International Politics) or to research I'm working on (new conceptions of security, justice after war, arms control, and the strange case of Equatorial Guinea have been the most recent topics). On occasion I'll write about interesting books or articles I've come across or current events that seem to indicate something significant about the current state of international politics.

There are a number of reasons why I blog. First, writing in this format provides an opportunity to test out ideas or explore different ways of thinking about what goes on in the world and in the discipline that tries to make sense of it. If an idea, an analogy, or a comparison seems to work, it can end up in a lecture, an article, or a book. If it doesn't, it can prompt another post that explores why it didn't work.

Second, the blog sometimes serves as a journal. By linking to and commenting on what the UN secretary general says about human rights in North Korea or what an American general has said about the security situation in Afghanistan, there's a record that I can easily return to in the future.

Third, the blog allows me to expand on conversations that have begun elsewhere (most often in classes). Just as the "Extension of Remarks" section of The Congressional Record allows members of Congress to put in the record what they wish they had said on the floor of the House or the Senate, the blog allows me to say what time or space constraints (or my state of preparedness) may have prevented me from saying in another forum.

Fourth, writing is a discipline and a blog offers an opportunity—along with a few incentives—to practice it. There's a reasonable expectation—one I dashed many months ago but will try to rebuild now—among those who read a blog that there will be something new to ponder almost every day. This gives the blogger both a reason to write and an incentive to write well about interesting things. And that's what I'll try to do, as I first started trying to do six years ago.